Close Election Contests

AN examination of the names on the voting list in any district must always disclose the fact that most of the voters have at an early stage in the canvass made up their minds on one side or the other of the issue of the day. For instance, in the years from 1884 to 1892 the two great parties in the United States were struggling over the tariff, and at the time of the autumn elections of 1890 most of the adherents of tariff reform, calling themselves Democrats, and those of protection, calling themselves Republicans, were well known to the politicians on both sides in every close Congressional district in the United States.

It is evident that in such a district the Republican mass of voters was paired against the Democratic, leaving a comparatively small body of men having minds at all open to any argument. It has long been admitted that in all legislative bodies, arguments do not change votes on any question in which the party line is drawn, and it seems to be equally true that the speeches and documents issued by a political party make very few converts among those who have allied themselves in the past with the rival party.

The field for any work which will bear fruit must be among the names which cannot be checked as mortgaged to the existing parties. Adherents of the smaller parties throw away their votes, so far as the decision of the issue is concerned. The members of these parties must, however, be known by the party managers, so that the latter may have a proper chart for guidance upon election day. After all this elimination there remain the names of the voters who are to decide the result of the election.

Many of these are the young men who have attained the age of twenty-one since the last election. If we imagine the voting list to be a pyramid of layers of voters, the bottom layer of the youngest voters must be the largest in numbers. It is probable that the number of men on the voting list in the United States to-day who voted for Hayes or Tilden in 1876 is very small, and that the great majority of the voters are young men under thirty. The new voters are wont to vote the same tickets as their fathers, but there is always a certain number of young men who do not follow family precedent in politics, and as a voter gets older, he begins to think more for himself, and to be influenced by his own experience of life.

In communities to which there is little immigration almost all of the new voters are descendants of the old electors, and in the ordinary course of events the old proportion of parties tends to be maintained, particularly in sparsely settled districts, removed from the current of trade and of national life. The towns on Cape Cod, for instance, were Democratic during the years before the war, when the Republican party was gaining fast in the rest of the state. By the convulsion of the civil war they became Republican, and since then have remained steadily with that party, being little impressed by the arguments of the Democratic party during the time when it was making gains in the rest of the Bay State.

On the other hand, communities where there are a large number of foreigners, of other newcomers, of natives, and of educated people, such as Greater New York, show great fluctuations in the parties at frequent intervals.

The balance of power lies with two classes of voters, — the least and the most intelligent. The former are the “floaters,” — men not influenced by argument or by ideals, but by the desire to vote with the winners, by foolish catch words or by humbug, or, it may be, by purchase. If the contest is carried on by both parties with equal vigor and ability, the vote of these men is likely to be evenly divided. It is in this struggle to gain this unintelligent vote that most of the money and effort is expended by political committees in this country. In the cities the " floaters " are more numerous in proportion to the whole vote, and are duly aware of their own importance. Two or three of them will gather together to organize a political club, commonly placing the word “Independent” somewhere in its title. A president is duly elected, an executive committee, and a treasurer. The latter office is at first a sinecure. The reason for the formation of the club is that it shall cease to be one.

The president and treasurer are, in the language of the politicians, “professional strikers.” These officials, in company, usually wait upon a manager to make preposterous claims as to the importance of their club. They represent that it consists of a large number of voters who are all anxious not only to vote, but to work zealously for the candidate; but they declare that they are poor and that the club needs suitable headquarters, that a certain amount of money is needed to furnish these headquarters and to pay the rent and the janitor, and last, but not least, for the valuable services of the president and treasurer in doing missionary work.

Or, it may be, the callers upon the political manager represent a torchlight batallion. The opportunities for spending money on torches, uniforms, bands, railway fares, and refreshments, are dazzling, and a candidate would much better have a sacred white elephant on his hands than an army of light-bearers.

Among other callers at headquarters are men who declare that they “represent” certain votes, such as the Labor, German, Italian, Colored, etc.

There is such a thing as the “ Colored vote,” and it is cast at every election almost unanimously for the Republican party, and the Democratic manager may always be sure that a Democratic negro, like a Republican Irishman, is such a rare bird that he may be dismissed from any political reckoning. This well-known fact does not prevent our colored brothers from being very skillful in “pulling the legs” of Democratic managers. It is not uncommon, even, for a clergyman of a colored church, accompanied by a leading deacon, to request employment from a Democratic committee. But as to the other votes, it cannot be truthfully said that they are ever represented in a block by anybody.

The so-called “Labor vote” does not, I think, exist. Men belonging to labor organizations vote according to their personal predilections; yet so-called representatives of labor organizations are insistent and clamorous about election time, claiming from managers compensation for the publication of articles in the labor organs. With them come the proprietors of newspapers published in the foreign languages for the German, Italian, and other colonies in the large cities; but the foreign colonies do not vote en masse for any political party, and they must be canvassed like the rest of the community, although the task is much more difficult. The recently naturalized voter generally votes at first with the party which has taken the trouble to have him made a citizen.

Political meetings, or “rallies,” as their latter name indicates, are held to fire the heart of the party adherents and to attract the attention of the hesitating or careless voter. The party workers are supplied with plausible arguments by skillful stump speeches, delivered in the intervals of patriotic music from a brass band.

These rallies are also an advertisement for the local candidates, whose personalities thus become known to their constituents. Under the “Australian” ballot, shrewd, well-directed advertising is of great service to a candidate. The average person is apt to look upon a man as being distinguished if his name be familiar, and even the most ignorant or careless voter likes to cast his vote for a candidate of distinction.

One of the most effective methods of advertising adopted is to publish widely in the newspapers an address of recommendation and approval, signed by names of men well known and respected in the community.

If in some controversy in the contest your candidate has confounded his opponent, it is well worth while to bring this fact home to the whole constituency, through the newspapers and circular letters, for the voters follow a candidate who is shrewd and successful.

The man who seeks to defeat a candidate of a majority party must gain a personal following; it is easier to gain votes for an individual than for the whole “ticket.” It is of the greatest importance that the candidate of the minority party should be an effective public speaker, and that his manners should be agreeable, and, best of all, his interest in his fellow men genuine. The simulation of good-fellowship, and a forced interest in others, never deceives.

When the managers on both sides have got through spending time and money on this floating vote, the chances are that it has been divided evenly between the two parties.

In the deciding balance, the old voters loosely attached to party, “mugwumps,” independents, leaders of thought, form the most important element. The number of these independents in any community is small, even in a district where there are many people of leisure, education, and public spirit. In the country districts the careful canvasses made in the state of Massachusetts from 1889 to 1892 disclosed a very small percentage of such men. Yet they possess an influence all out of proportion to their number, since they are usually enthusiasts, willing to give their time and their money to the side which convinces them.

It is observed that men in active life are usually allied to some party, and when a man, from retirement or from his calling, is removed from close contact with affairs, his tendency is to become critical, and he is not easily satisfied with the half truths which every active politician must sometimes be compelled to tell in political fights. The party speaker is necessarily the advocate of his side, and must be true to his brief, and when it happens that his party has taken up a wrong position, he must sometimes even be driven to “abusing his opponent.” Like a barrister, he must put his best foot foremost and take advantage of every incident and accident in the hope of carrying through a desperate cause, but he is not likely to persuade the most intelligent voters.

The influence of these few leading independents, as they are men of position and weight in the community, decides a close election. If sufficiently aroused, they may be relied upon to contribute the money which a party manager must have to put his sure men on the voting list and bring them to the polls on election day. If the manager has not this money, and is not backed by the enthusiasm of the workers, so that he is able to do these two things, his predicament is like that of the coach of a football team who has the misfortune to have a weak line, and all his skill and development of the balancing vote will go for nothing if he cannot bring up his solid phalanx to match that of his opponents.

The side, then, which gains in a close district a majority of the known independents, however small may be their numbers, will probably gain the victory, since it seems to be the fact that if a small number of clear-headed and important men, picked out more or less at random in a community, think in one way upon a question, the same mental processes which brought them to their conclusion are working the same result with thoughtful men throughout the whole mass of the voters, and will bring those among them who have the same point of view and mental characteristics to the same conclusion.

It is a curious fact, well known to newspaper men, that the total vote of a state, Congressional district, or large city may be accurately calculated at the moment when the returns from, say, forty per cent of the voting precincts have come in as they happen to be completed. The ratio established by these returns between the two parties is always found to continue through the rest of the vote. This shows that the current of public opinion which is to decide the election operates according to some law evenly throughout the community, and that while there are many men of many minds, yet there are many of the same kind of mind, which will be influenced to the same result by the same arguments. The arguments which would win with the impartial elder voter, loosely attached to a party, will be almost sure to influence the younger voters who are impartial and unattached.

It is usually found that when once the movement of these men toward a party is started, it progresses until it is checked by some political convulsion. From 1884 to 1892 this movement was in favor of the Democratic party in this country. During these years, William E. Russell, a young and able man, presented the issue of tariff reform in the annual contests in Massachusetts. He had from the beginning a following outside of his party, for his youth and eloquence appealed at once to the young voters. He was first a candidate in 1888. He had in every contest a plurality of votes in Boston, a Democratic city, as follows: —

1888, 8,264 in a total vote¹ of 69,120

1889, 4,670 “ “ “ “ “ 54,768

1890, 13,358 “ “ “ “ “ 56,793

1891, 12,812 “ “ “ “ “ 64,416

1892, 13,617 “ “ “ “ “ 78,569

In the rest of the state the Republican candidate had a plurality of

1888, 37,311 in a total vote1 of 264,509

1889, 12,129 “ “ “ “ “ 196,877 1890, 4,295 in a total vote of 219,351

1891, 7,091 “ “ “ “ “ 249,935

1892, 10,083 “ “ “ “ “ 291,651

The above election returns show that in 1890 there was a “landslide” to the Democratic party. The larger party in any section should, in ordinary times, when there is an increased vote, increase its plurality, since the reserve vote must always be divided between the two parties in somewhat the same proportion as the vote which went to the polls; but in 1890, a year of political convulsion, we find that in the state, outside of Boston, where the Republicans were in a large preponderance, though there was an increase in the total vote of both parties of 22,474, over the same vote for 1889, the Republican plurality was actually decreased by 7834. The converts made that year continued to vote for Russell as long as he was a candidate. His large plurality in Boston in each of these three elections outweighed the Republican pluralities in the rest of the state. He had a hold upon the voters of Massachusetts much greater than had any other man of his party. It is calculated that in 1891, 8000 Republicans voted for him.

Harrison carried the state in 1892 by 26,000. The normal Republican plurality for the rest of the ticket, excepting Russell, was, in 1891, about 10,000 votes. The increased vote of the presidential year was brought up to 26,000; 69,127 more men voted the Republican and Democratic tickets than in 1891. The reserve vote of Massachusetts in that year came out, 42,560 Republican, 26,560 Democratic, in the voting for President. The Republican reserve was somewhat greater in proportion to the Democratic than was to have been expected by the vote of the previous year. This showed that the minority party had in the previous year put out greater exertions to bring its sure vote to the polls than had the Republican. The election of Russell by a plurality of over 2000, in face of the fact that his party was in the same year in a minority of 26,000, was a remarkable personal triumph. It was due to his hold upon the voters under thirty years of age, who were proud of him as a representative of their generation.

Since 1894 the movement of independent voters has been toward the Republican party, and in close districts Democratic success has been the rare exception when national issues were involved. In 1896 another political convulsion took place. In that year the Democratic party leaders, seeing that it was impossible to carry for any candidate the great conservative states of New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, and Indiana, abandoned the conservative programme which had, on the whole, been approved for eight years by the independent voters in these states, and sought to retain their party in power by an appeal to those sections of the United States where “frontier finance” was believed in. Ever since this country was settled, people living on the frontier, removed from banking facilities, have been led astray by the will-o’-the-wisp of the advantage of a depreciated standard of value. Agricultural communities, where the assets of the people are not readily received by any financial institution, and where rates of interest are high, are always a good field for the operations of the financial crank. A “Land Bank” received the hearty support of English country gentlemen in the last decade of the seventeenth century; and a few years later a like institution was wished for by the inhabitants of the Massachusetts Bay Colony.

It was to these communities that the Democratic party in 1896 decided to appeal, and by so doing, it of necessity forfeited the confidence of the independent voters, which it had retained for so many years; and not only did it do this, but it dislodged from its great mass, its “rush line,” hundreds of thousands of voters who either voted for the Republican candidate or threw away their votes. The Republican majorities in the conservative states in 1896 were enormous. The Democratic party threw away the substance for the shadow, gaining a few insignificant sage - brush states, while it lost New York and the other close states.

Democratic institutions work best when the parties are evenly balanced, and where there are many voters loosely tied to any party. The machine on each side must be kept upon its good behavior, and it must be forced to put forward its best men, to be conservative in its party measures and management, when it has the responsibilities of government. It is of the greatest importance that there should be an intelligent opposition party ready to take over at any time the responsibilities of government. Both in England and America to-day the opposition parties are disorganized, and though there are signs in each country that they are being more firmly knit together, yet much remains to be done before a proper balance is established. In each country a great opposition leader is needed. And with the leader must come a definite programme, in which he sincerely believes, which will appeal to those intelligent voters who decide elections, and in whom all the hope of successful popular government must rest.