The Atlantic Report on the World Today: Washington

ON THE WORLD TODAY

MR. STIMSON’S account of why we used the atom bomb set the Capital agog. The consensus is that the account is partial. The war was so immense, the warmaking organization so lacking in cohesion, that it is doubtful whether any one man knows all. Of living persons, Mr. Stimson probably comes closest to over-all knowledge. What disturbs Washington most is that he leaves an impression which will be exploited by a future generation of Japanese: that the atom bomb knocked Japan out of the war.

This was an impression that Secretary of State Byrnes had been most anxious to correct. Out of Japan on the heels of V-J Day came many assertions that it was the atom bomb that made Japan surrender. Mr. Stimson says it was “the controlling factor.” But on August 29, 1945, such a statement out of Japanese mouths was dubbed Japanese propaganda. Mr. Byrnes took pains at his press conference of that day to assert that the Japanese were beaten before the bomb fell on Hiroshima, and knew it. He cited Russian proof.

Molotov had told the Potsdam conferees in July that Japan had invoked Russian mediation. But peace feelers had been coming out of Japan since the previous Christmas. For this purpose the Japanese successively used the Turkish Ambassador in Tokyo, Switzerland, Sweden, and the Vatican.

None of the overtures was explored. There was a fear that the Japanese were playing the same kind of phony peace offensive that Hitler tried early in 1940. Moreover, in the summer of 1945 the State Department was virtually paralyzed. So the riposte to the Japanese inquiries was military action.

Who owns the records?

The Stimson paper is part of the Stimson autobiography cum diary now in preparation. Another diary that has aroused much speculation is the record (said to be 900 volumes) that Henry Morgenthau carted away from the Treasury.

Mr. Morgenthau’s activity in this respect was always a matter for amused comment in Washington. He had all telephone messages recorded, all incoming and outgoing mail copied, all conversations taken down by stenographers. His callers, faced with the ubiquitous notebook, adopted one of two courses. Sometimes they talked to history, making speeches for the Morgenthau record. Sometimes they refused to take positions on any matter under discussion lest they be faced with their own words later. It was no easy matter to try to do day-to-day business with Mr. Morgenthau.

The humorlessness of Mr. Morgenthau, no less than his industry, now has a public interest. Mr. Roosevelt had a strong vein of flippancy among his familiars. But it seems to have escaped Mr. Morgenthau. Everything that Mr. Roosevelt said in Mr. Morgenthau’s presence was committed to paper as soon as the Secretary got home.

As serious contributions, these items now make strange reading. In the early gold-pricing days, for instance, Mr. Morgenthau records that the President put up the rate by 21 cents, because 21, being a multiple of 7, was a lucky number. An official who was present on this occasion swears that Mr. Roosevelt winked at him across Mr. Morgenthau’s solemn shoulder. The imp in Mr. Roosevelt may be lost to history.

Unification for defense

Inquirers are assured that the Army and Navy are now at one on the reorganization. But it is doubtful whether unanimity prevails. The diehards are to be found among the naval aviators. They believe that the creation of a separate Department of Air will lead in time to the absorption of naval aviation. Yet naval aviation appears to be fully protected in the reorganization. It provides for Navy retention of land-based as well as ship-based craft, though, of course, it gives autonomy to the Army Air Forces.

Whether the Navy air arm can be adjusted to the other elements in the reorganization will be one of the first questions before the Secretary of National Defense. On the staff level there should be no difficulty, for the Joint Chiefs of Staff are to be retained, though all the war commanders, Navy as well as Army, objected to this committee system when they were interviewed in wartime by a special service committee on unification.

A central intelligence system

The House Committee on the Armed Services already has anticipated one of the vital items in the ArmyNavy reorganization. This is the proposal for a central intelligence authority. Such a body is already in existence under Lieutenant General Hoyt S. Vandenberg, but only on executive order. The Committee wants an Act of Congress to place the group beyond the reach of whim or economy axe.

The suggestion shows an awareness of the changed requirements of our national defense. In the early days of the war we had to depend in great measure upon intelligence reports supplied by the British. Gradually we evolved a system of our own, though there was no coördination.

As it stands today the central intelligence service is enabled to draw upon the groups existing in War, Navy, and State. However, it is engaging in independent operations of its own. Quite properly the House Committee deprecates this activity. It thinks that the central organ should restrict itself to the evaluation of intelligence collected by others. This is British practice. At the top in London there is a joint intelligence committee, which is served by groups inside the armed services and the Foreign Office.

The theory is that the raw material of intelligence may be, in Kipling’s words, a “trap for fools” unless the reports are carefully examined for meaning. A story is current that it was these committee experts who figured out the meaning of the activity at Peenemunde which had come to them from British Army Intelligence. They deduced from the facts of the activity that here was the central rocket installation. It was thereupon destroyed, and England was saved from a hail of rockets.

The Committee also recommends that General Vandenberg be replaced by a civilian. It is felt that, aside from the importance of civilian control, the civilian mind is better at the helm. Actually several Cabinet heads were in agreement with this thesis when General Vandenberg was appointed. The trouble was to find a man who had the necessary sense of monastic dedication. At one time it was thought that Allen W. Dulles, who distinguished himself with the OSS during the war, would be chosen. But his name was rejected on the irrelevant grounds that he is the brother of John Foster Dulles.

Holding what line?

The much advertised prospect of a business recession finds no support in the White House. But Presidential optimism has been based upon holding the line in rents and depressing the line in prices. As to prices, there have been a number of cuts, with Ford’s the most spectacular. This move demonstrated a return to the traditional competition associated with the automobile industry, at a time when the old complaint against administered prices in industry is being heard again.

In Washington, Ford’s action was welcomed as a move to spike any general demand for wage increases on grounds of advancing living costs. Another round of wage increases is thought of as the last straw in an inflationary spiral. If industry could get a breathing spell so as to recapture volume and the pre-war rate of productivity, then there might be a chance of giving higher wages within the existing price structure. It was with an eye on the general picture that President Truman refused to be party to a 10 per cent rent hike.

Our foreign trade

A good deal of what is going on in Congress is explained by the need to let off hot air before settling down to business. The State Department doesn’t seem worried about this mumbling against the reciprocal trade treaties. The theory is that after the legislators have made a bow to their constituents, there may be a bargain with Congress which would put the Tariff Commission in a position to look over the treaties and make recommendations.

No one feels, in spite of the uneasiness abroad, that there will be any delay in calling the international conference to set up an international trade organization, or that any brake will be put on it. This would be a kind of world Foreign Trade Commission, the equivalent on commercial policy of the United Nations. All policy pertaining to commercial arrangements would be cleared through this organization. It will be here, it is hoped, that American tariff adjustments will be swapped for the abandonment of exclusive deals between nations, such as those existing under the British system of Imperial Preference.

WASHINGTON (continued)

Last year less than 14 billion dollars of goods and services were transferred to foreign countries. Only half that sum was received in foreign goods and services. How was payment made? There was, of course, no payment at all for UNRRA consignments and donations such as parcels abroad, and no debt thereby incurred.

Some countries, especially in Latin America, drew on the dollar reserves they had piled up in the United States as a result of our purchases during the war. Others, like Britain and France, relied on American loans.

A different situation prevails this year. There is much less giving, and other countries are using up their loan and owned dollars. Our exports, in other words, can be sustained in the immediate future only by the extension of credits. Here is where the Export-Import Bank and the World Bank must figure. The experts feel that we have been wasting a lot of time in putting these agencies to work on the needed scale, and that the delay has become a real problem. For without credits, reconstruction abroad will be retarded.

If we can’t maintain and improve our export trade, our swollen agricultural surplus will back up on the American market, and the bottom is likely to fall out of our farm prices. This means depression.

THE MOOD OF THE CAPITAL

The President is rapidly moving into a good strategic position in respect to Congress. He is said to feel that he can work better with the Republican 80th than with the Democratic 79th. The latter was faction-ridden. His thorns came as much from his own party as from the opposition. Having delivered himself of his own position on the questions of the day, he is sitting back, waiting for the Republicans to give him the answers. His messages have been influential, and he has a veto power which he has given no sign of relinquishing.

On foreign relations the President will keep the driver’s seat through the appointment of General Marshall as Secretary of State. It has been said, of course, that the Republicans will try to steer Marshall, but the theory takes no account either of Marshall’s independence or of his standing with the American people. He is not a man to push around.

Portal-to-portal pay is the nightmare of Washington no less than of Wall Street. Many bills before Congress have been aimed at removing it. One suggestion goes to the extreme of proposing a joint resolution of Congress saying plainly that the Supreme Court misinterpreted the intent of Congress in the Fair Labor Standards Act. This would be a humiliating situation. But bitterness is growing against the latter-day habit of the Bench of invading the legislative domain of Congress.