Japan's Place in Asia

by SHIGERU YOSHIDA

Postwar Prime Minister of Japan

1

THE shooting wars in Korea and Indo-China are at a blessed end. Asia — at the moment — enjoys a welcome but uneasy peace. Yesterday’s Communist bullets have given way to Communist blandishments. But be it conquest or courtship, there still remain only two sides and only two choices: freedom or slavery.

I am sometimes asked if Asia’s current surcease from a shooting war is not an indication of Communist good intentions. I answer that there is peace in Asia today only because of the Communists’ assumption that the area will fall to them without their having to resort to military force. Their confidence strikes me as a rather terrifying measure of Asia’s vulnerability — and of the gigantic challenge the Asian struggle imposes on the forces of freedom.

What are the ingredients in this situation? Why is Asia vulnerable? I answered these questions recently before a group of distinguished American newspapermen with these words:

“We have in Asia a vast population which is engaged in a titanic effort to break with the misery and poverty of the past. We also have a Communist China, a bleak fact of life in Asia that occupies our minds constantly. And we have a number of new, underdeveloped nations trying to make their way against the gravitational pull of Communist China, trying to establish stable, democratic conditions and to raise living standards.

“In the political field, those new nations are attempting to build democracy in the face of the strong but specious appeal that Communism has for the poverty-stricken and the politically immature. On the economic side, their effort to raise living standards is hampered by a lack of capital with which to expand the means of production and a lack of skills with which to produce more.”

These are the elements the Communists have weighed in arriving at their cold-blooded decision that Asia will be theirs after a suitable period of “ripening” — a period during which, presumably, the new democracies are expected to fail economically, and thus politically and nationally.

Such failure would mean the death of certain aspirations shared by all the nations of Free Asia, including Japan. We all want a higher standard of living for our people. We all want to be truly independent and self-supporting, to have security and stability, to live in peace and freedom.

And we also share the belief that the Communists, as they have done so many times in the past, are underestimating the peoples’ will to freedom and the Free World’s ultimate solidarity. The new democracies of Asia will win out, but they will need help.

In the great task of helping the Asian countries to stand on their own feet in economic freedom, Japan has an important role to play. She is the only highly industrialized nation in Asia. She possesses industrial technology, managerial experience, and an abundance of technical experts and skilled manpower. She has experience in adapting Western technology to Asian conditions.

Although human nature and human needs are basically the same everywhere, contact with a given people is best made with a knowledge of their psychology, historical background, and local conditions. Japan, being Asiatic and having had experience that fits the Asian pattern of development, can be an effective intermediary between the West and Asia. (It is basic, of course, that any help be undertaken in a manner which fully respects the national independence and aspirations of the countries concerned, scrupulously avoiding interference in local affairs and political life.)

If Japanese technical abilities could thus be put fully to work, they could contribute much to the economic development of the countries of Asia. If Japanese skills and Western material resources were integrated with the development plans of the Asian countries, progress would be speedy. The urgency of the proposition here set forth should be fully recognized. The urgency applies equally to Japan and to the rest of the Free World.

2

In prewar years, Japan’s exports to China, Korea, and Formosa averaged almost half her total annual exports. This trade is now insignificant. On the other hand, during the past several years, exports to Southeast Asia have been double the prewar ratio. It is obvious that development of the Japanese economy to a level of self-support depends in large measure on the extent to which our trade with Southeast Asia may be developed.

Politically, Japan would find it impossible to stand alone if the greater part of Southeast Asia were to fall under Communist domination. Japan’s own existence, therefore, depends on the economic development of, and the maintenance of stability in, the Southeast Asian countries.

As the situation stands, the political future of Southeast Asia is dependent on early attainment of economic viability. If China makes rapid economic progress under Communist control, leaving the Southeast Asian countries far behind, there will develop such a margin between economic standards in the Communist and non-Communist areas of Asia that Communist China might be able, indeed without a struggle, to place all of Southeast Asia under its influence.

Economists know that the scale of investment is often the decisive factor in the rate of economic development. In this important held, Communist China is already far ahead, developing its productivity at a per capita rate at least twice that of current capital investment in Southeast Asia. If this present wide difference continues, the prosperity of China, now about the same as that of Southeast Asia, will become appreciably higher as the years go by. Conversely, if more dynamic economic progress could be achieved in Southeast Asia, the magnetic pull could operate in the opposite direction, thus serving to draw the Chinese masses out of the shadow into the sunshine of the Free World.

It should be evident that the advanced nations of the Free World must accord all possible assistance, both economic and technical, to Southeast Asia in order that the area may at least keep abreast of Communist. China in its economic development. Otherwise the struggle for freedom will be lost.

The balance between risk and profit opportunity that is required to attract private investment — or even investment by existing international organizations — does not now exist in Southeast Asia. At this stage, the real need is for substantial capital outlays in the basic fields of hygiene, education, transportation, irrigation, power, and heavy industry. Programs and projects like these have little or no appeal to private investors because of the long-term nature of the investment, even in those fields where a profit is possible.

As a field for investment in peace, security, and the progress of mankind, however, Southeast Asia offers a prime opportunity. And now is the time for action. The longer conditions are permitted to deteriorate, the more expensive the ultimate expenditure will have to be. Nor can it be said that this type of investment is untested and therefore too risky. Thanks in large part to a similar program, Europe stands politically and economically solvent — and the Free World is incomparably stronger. The Organization for European Economic Co-operation provides us with a superb pattern for Southeast Asia. An organization of Asian states co-operating in the allocation of outside investment would build unity and supply a foundation for the integrated development of the entire area. As basic investment proceeded, private investors would begin to find the kind of climate they require and would add their force to economic growth.

In order to define Japan’s place in Asia, it has been necessary for me first to define the kind of Asia there must be if there is to be a Japan —a free Japan. As I see it, the course of Southeast Asia must be along these or similar lines. There can be no stagnation, no slipping backward for the people of this important area with their new hopes and new horizons. We of Japan are not alone in recognizing this.

The future of Japan is tied to the progress of Southeast Asia. However slowly or swiftly economic development takes place in these countries, Japan will have a function as interpreter of Western techniques, fabricator of Western materials for the East and of Asian materials for the West, supplier and customer. This is our national talent, just as the American talent is for bold thinking and decisive action.